Kalshi Khamenei Market Resolution Controversy

“BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68% Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death. If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death.”

“Not a single user will lose a dollar on this market. We are settling the market to last traded price before time of death, which is time of the first strike at 1:14am EST. If you bought a position today for a higher price, we'll…”

“Kalshi has onboarded millions of gamblers. Kalshi listed a market that says “Khamenei out as supreme leader,” but the gamblers had to read the fine print to find out what death meant. It was more a matter of when not if Kalshi would run into…”

“The Ideas section at Kalshi is literally people planning a class action against Kalshi for the Khamenei market.”

“Please note: A prior version of this clarification was grammatically ambiguous. As a customer service measure, Kalshi will reimburse lost value due to trades made between these clarifications. MARKET RULES CLARIFICATION: If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the confirmed reporting of the…”

“@NathanMeininger My first message was unclear. To clarify, all positions, no matter when they were opened, will first be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position today for a higher price, we'll make you…”

“@BalvaDean Dog they LITERALLY refunded losses for people who bought yes without reading the rules and STILL paid out wins to people who read the rules. They LOST money on this market.”

“Even Polymarket has no idea… That’s a first. A literal coinflip”

“If you have to do this much explaining of what the market is and how it resolves, it might be a shitty market!”

“Me watching everyone shit on Kalshi for misaligned betting market titles vs. betting market fine print rules”

“Let’s check out the “Ideas” section of the Khamenei market at Kalshi.”

“@KidAstoria1111 Theoretically no one is losing money? They are refunding people who bought yes after the death”

“I have been staring at this all day. What even is the point of this market? It's not telling us "the truth" and it's now been paused while they figure out what it should pay? Just complete nonsense.”

“Reimbursing fees is a start!”

“Kalshi is talking too much and also not saying enough. There needed to be a single clear, concise statement that clarified the market.”

“@SpeculatorArt I actually like the No here. Even if he is I think Iran drags out any acknowledgement of it for a couple days”

“@publius_val This would have mostly been solved by titling the market “Ali Khamenei Out as Supreme Leader Via Means Other Than Death?” but of course they know no one actually wants to bet on that.”

“@publius_val The prediction markets evangelists keep crying "it's in the rules!" and while that's true, you can also see why casuals are up in arms. It wasn't that hard to create a market title that would have been correct here. FAFO imo”

“Ok, you commented on my post that I’m a biased loser liar, and I just showed you that you got a full refund. This was not a perfect market by any means for a recreational user and I can understand having confusion. But the rules…”

“@Shahabs @Tyler_Did_It 95% he’s out? Or not out?”