Briefing Archive

Daily prediction market intelligence

Friday, February 27, 2026

Anthropic Refuses Pentagon AI Ultimatum, 44% Chance of Supply Chain Ban
Anthropic CEO formally rejected the Department of Defense's final offer for unrestricted military AI access after a 24-hour deadline. Markets now pricing 44% chance the company faces Pentagon supply chain ban, creating major precedent for AI governance and defense tech relationships.
via Manifold Markets via Don't Worry About the Vase via CBS News

Pentagon Issues 24-Hour Ultimatum to Anthropic Over Military AI Access
The Department of Defense sent Anthropic a final offer seeking unrestricted military use of Claude AI capabilities with a 24-hour deadline to respond or face potential ban. The standoff represents one of the most significant AI governance crises of 2026, pitting national security demands against AI safety principles.
via CBS News via Manifold Markets via Don't Worry About the Vase