Politics
30 stories
Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary?
Nate Silver analyzes Texas Senate Democratic primary where prediction markets favor Talarico despite nonpartisan polls showing Crockett ahead, highlighting divergence between polling and market sentiment.
🔮 PLAY BY PLAY
Polymarket traders predicted the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision to strike down Trump's Liberation Day tariffs before the ruling, showing market forecasting accuracy ahead of official announcements.
Demonstrates Polymarket's edge in real-time event prediction for trading tariff and SCOTUS markets.
DHS official promises election officials that ICE will not be at polling places
DHS official denies ICE will be at polling places, directly relevant to Polymarket/Kalshi election integrity and voter turnout markets as immigration enforcement fears could influence voting behavior predictions.
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Nate Silver tracks generic congressional ballot with Democrats leading by 5.4 points, a key indicator for 2026 midterms. Could impact Polymarket/Kalshi House control markets as polls update continuously.
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin provides continuously updated Trump approval ratings with house effects adjustments. Relevant for political prediction markets tracking presidential approval benchmarks on platforms like Polymarket.
Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?
Texas Senate race analysis suggests Republicans risk nominating weak candidate Ken Paxton, potentially giving Democrats an opening. Could impact Polymarket/Kalshi Senate control and specific race markets.
🔮 He Called Every State in 2024. Here's His Midterm Map
Captain K, who accurately predicted all states in 2024 election, shares his 2026 midterm map. Polymarket featured this successful forecaster who previously showed strong predictive accuracy on their platform.
The 2026 Midterms Are Underway in Texas: What We Can Read From the Senate Primary Tea Leaves
Early voting begins in Texas Senate primary, transforming a typically quiet contest into the key 2026 midterm battleground with high-profile candidates across factions.
Position early in Texas Senate markets before primary results reshape odds for November midterm control predictions.
Which 2028 Democrats have the best electoral track record?
Analysis of 2028 Democratic candidates' electoral track records highlights Ruben Gallego's Arizona outperformance vs Harris. May inform early 2028 presidential nomination markets on prediction platforms.
Crime As Proxy For Disorder
Crime statistics debate reframed as disorder perception issue—people conflate litter, graffiti, shoplifting, tent cities with traditional crime metrics despite low crime rates.
Anticipate disconnect between crime rate data and public safety perception markets affecting policy prediction outcomes.
Monthly Roundup #39: February 2026
February 2026 roundup notes ongoing Anthropic-Pentagon situation involving misunderstandings. Anthropic wants to support Department of War defense capabilities while navigating tensions.
From Longshot Odds to Coinflip: How Democrats Can Win the Senate + How to Trade Another Gov’t Shutdown
Democrats reach historic 40% chance of winning Senate control as Alaska and Ohio emerge as tipping point states. Markets also price in another lengthy government shutdown.
Adjust Senate control positions as Democrats' odds improve; consider shutdown duration markets for near-term volatility plays.
Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care
US murder rate potentially hit 250-year low in 2025, with most crimes at ~50-year lows. Analysis defends data quality against reporting bias and medical improvement skeptics.
Expect divergence between objective crime data and perception-driven markets on public safety and political outcomes.
Capitalist ≠ Voluntary
Time for a status update on cultural drift. I’ve been pondering solutions, and now see at best only three weakly promising options. The other possible approaches seem to me at best only modest supplements to these three best solutions.
Distributed Liability
Markets give 35% odds Jeffrey Epstein confirmed as intelligence asset by 2028 following latest file releases, focusing on whether he worked for any government agency.
Can Democrats escape their Florida death spiral?
Analysis argues Florida is no longer a swing state due to Democratic decline and Republican dominance. Could impact state-level and Senate race markets treating Florida as competitive.
Maine’s Collins Faces Toughest Test Yet, Texas Primary Heats Up, and A Complete 2026 Senate Guide
Susan Collins launches sixth-term bid as underdog in Maine while Trump teases Texas endorsement. Traders are repricing the entire 2026 Senate battlefield across multiple races.
Monitor Collins underdog status and Trump endorsement impacts for mispriced opportunities across correlated Senate races.
Political Backflow From Europe
Analyzes political idea flow from Europe to America, suggesting reverse cultural influence beyond typical America-to-Europe pattern. European political movements may shape US discourse.
Consider European political trends as leading indicators for US political movement markets and policy adoption timelines.
Kamala Harris has Liz Cheney Syndrome
Harris faces identity problem where centrists see her as leftist and vice versa, hurting 2028 prospects. Could impact Democratic primary prediction markets on Polymarket/Kalshi.
The Myth of Libertarian Vs Authoritarian
Many have long described variation in political opinion in terms of two key dimensions, described either as economic freedom and personal freedom, or via rotated axes as left vs right and libertarian vs authoritarian.
🔮 RED TILT?
Analysis examines whether Polymarket traders skew Republican, addressing criticism about crypto-bro demographic bias. Study investigates if partisan lean affects election forecast accuracy on the platform.
The sad and self-inflicted decline of the Washington Post, in one chart
Washington Post traffic and influence declined sharply under Bezos, laying off over a third of staff. May impact media industry prediction markets and political information ecosystem bets.
Don't discount American democracy's resilience
Silver argues US democracy shows resilience despite authoritarian threats, citing popular democratic traditions. Could inform prediction markets on democratic stability and institutional durability.
Texas Special Upset, Senate Odds Shift, and Shutdown Markets Heat Up
Shocking Texas special election result forces traders to update 2026 midterm forecasts. Government shutdown odds also heat up as traders monitor fiscal deadline approaches.
Use Texas special election outcome as leading indicator to reprice November midterm probabilities before markets fully adjust.
ICE Shutdown or Shut Down ICE
Markets tracking federal government shutdown odds amid fast-moving political developments, coming just months after a previous painful shutdown with changing appropriations negotiations.
2028 Democratic primary draft #2
Second draft of 2028 Democratic primary candidates with Galen Druke analyzing early frontrunners. Directly relevant for Polymarket/Kalshi 2028 nomination markets.
🔮 He Predicted the Next Shutdown 3 Weeks Early
Polymarket whale 'Semi' predicted government shutdown 3 weeks early, turning $286 into $1M+ profits. His strategy involves fading conventional wisdom and spotting powder kegs before they ignite.
Trading Angles: Gov't Shutdown Odds and Texas Senate Plays
Government shutdown markets suddenly heat up as fiscal deadlines approach. Texas Senate race trading opportunities emerge amid shifting primary dynamics.
Capitalize on shutdown market volatility and Texas primary movements before conventional polls catch up to changing dynamics.
Trump is losing normies on immigration
Trump approval dropping after border agent killed Minnesota civilian, losing support on immigration among moderates. Could impact approval rating markets and 2026 midterm predictions.
Musk Money, Trump’s Endorsement, and Kentucky Trading Angles — Plus a 2028 Presidential Odds Update
Kentucky Republican Senate primary reprices after $10M donation. Rubio's Venezuela policy bump creates pressure on 2028 presidential markets as early positioning begins.
Track major donation impacts on primary odds and Rubio's foreign policy wins for early 2028 presidential market positioning.
