Culture
25 stories
Buying News By Metric
Hanson proposes reforming news by measuring long-term outcomes and paying providers for achieving them. This metric-based approach could inform prediction markets tracking media accuracy and impact.
How popular is Elon Musk?
Elon Musk's net favorability holds at -17.5 in Silver's tracker with no new polls added recently. Could inform prediction markets on Musk-related political or business outcomes.
Treat Info Institutions Alike
Hanson argues info institutions like markets, journalism, and academia should be treated uniformly rather than competitors disparaging each other. Relevant for how prediction markets are regulated versus traditional info sources.
Our Modern Mistake
People hate to be given direct orders, especially if they will have to visibly follow such orders, and especially if they feel rivalrous with those who give orders.
Mature Cultural Desire
A common immature attitude to desire is to assume that you are entitled to what you passionately desire, and to then cry if you don’t get it, to pressure others to give it to you.
Situate Your Essay
Having been academic researcher for over forty years now, I am well aware of academia’s many big failures as an intellectual system.
Your Deepest Value is Adaption
You like some people, food, and TV shows more than you do others.
Answered Prayer Seems Implausible
Our universe is vast and mysterious.
Dependence Drives Group Thickness
We are parts of many social units.
Toward Legible Adaption
One big cause of our modern cultural drift into maladaption is: a weakening of selection pressures.
Cultural Rationality
In our standard model of natural selection, organisms encode stable behavioral strategies, and pass those encodings on to their kids, only some of whom manage to make more kids, causing a drift over time toward strategies that tend to promote successful reproduction.
Novels See Only Politics Changed By Facts
To study perceptions of causes of cultural change, I started with this posted list of the top 240 novels ever.
Why Not Firm Youth Movements?
I’ve read a bit about cultural change both in corporations and in our larger macro cultures.
Our Slapdash Cultural Change
Our culture—the values we hold, the norms we follow, the virtues we admire —shapes nearly every aspect of our lives.
Polymarket Inks Deal With Golden Globes — Plus Trading Tips for Sunday's Show
Polymarket inks first major awards-show partnership with Golden Globes. Analysis identifies nominees most likely to play spoiler in Sunday's ceremony.
Leverage mainstream media partnerships expanding prediction market liquidity and public awareness for entertainment category trades.
Christian Cultural Drift
Re civ decline, my basic story is that a key contribution to the fall of civilizations is plausibly that as a civ gets big, rich, and peaceful, its local cultural evolution process parameters get worse, at least at the culture level.
Academia’s Abstraction Failure
One of the greatest obstacles to humanity using abstract thought to help on its biggest issues is this: our main professional specialists in abstract though applied to big issues are academics, and they refuse to think abstractly about how they allocate resources.
Oscars Best Actor Bubble, NFL Coaching Carousel Trades, and Super Bowl Ad Predictions
Fresh trading angles emerge for Oscars Best Actor nominations, NFL head coaching vacancies, and Super Bowl commercial predictions across entertainment and sports markets.
Diversify into entertainment and sports markets offering near-term resolution and lower correlation to saturated political categories.
They Will Blame You
Hanson predicts world civilization will peak in population within 3 decades, with economic peak following. This forecast on civilizational decline could drive long-term prediction markets on demographic and economic trends.
Peak TIME POTY Drama
TIME Person of the Year 2025 race creates trading drama reminiscent of 2023's competitive selection process, with markets tracking potential winners in wide-open field.
Manifest x DC
First 'Manifest x DC' unconference successfully merges prediction market culture with Washington establishment, launching TEDx-style grassroots spinoff events replicable anywhere.
From Dancing Finals to Heisman Longshots: Trading Angles & Industry Shake-Ups
Trading angles for Dancing with the Stars finals, Heisman longshots, and Trump Cabinet appointments. Polymarket gains approval to partner with FCMs expanding regulated access.
Capitalize on entertainment market liquidity; track Polymarket FCM partnerships enabling institutional access and compliance pathways.
I started a podcast
50¢ Dollars podcast launches to interview prediction market industry figures. Aims for technical, in-depth conversations modeled after Odd Lots podcast format.
Listen for alpha from industry insiders sharing non-public insights about market dynamics and developments.
Investing In Creator-Led Brands, At Peak Creator-Led Brand
Framework for investing in creator-led brands at peak hype. Covers creators launching beauty, apparel and F&B products with future predictions.
Assess creator brand sustainability to trade influencer business success and valuation markets.
The $5 Billion Creator HoldCo
MrBeast's Beast Industries seeks $5B valuation. Explains creator HoldCo emergence, appeal to creators/investors, and investment evaluation criteria.
Trade creator economy valuation markets by tracking mega-influencer fundraising and exit outcomes.
