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Pentagon Delivers Ultimatum to Anthropic on Military AI Use
The Pentagon sent Anthropic a 'best and final offer' for unrestricted military AI access with a 24-hour deadline, threatening a ban if rejected. This standoff escalates tensions between AI safety principles and national security demands, with potential implications for AI policy and defense contracts.
Over $16 million has flooded into this strike market after Vice President JD Vance declared Tuesday night that the US has evidence Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons development. The announcement came as nuclear negotiations appear to have stalled completely — WarMonitor3 reported that Iran's latest diplomatic offer 'showed almost no change' from previous positions, suggesting diplomacy may be exhausted. Defense watchers note that any military action is likely on hold during Indian PM Narendra Modi's two-day Israel visit, which just began Wednesday, giving traders a narrow window to position before potential escalation.
188 tweets · Today
Prediction market Twitter is split between geopolitical brinkmanship and industry growing pains. Polymarket is farming engagement with Epstein conspiracy bait while Kalshi quietly bleeds credibility — another insider trading ban, this time a MrBeast editor caught betting on YouTube video releases. Meanwhile, Alan Cole's $342K DOGE bet is the WSJ's feel-good contrarian story of the week.
What prediction market insiders are saying
“BREAKING: The iPhone & iPad become the 1st consumer devices approved to handle classified NATO intel.”
“It looks like Alabama class action lawsuit against Kalshi is moving to Southern District NY, with the other (consolidated) class action lawsuits.”
“JUST IN: Trump reportedly considering declaring national emergency to gain "unprecedented power" over elections”
“Indian Gaming Association and other tribal leaders meeting this week condemn prediction markets”
“JUST IN: Tampa International Airport announces ban on pajamas and Crocs at their airport.”
“🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: US trade deficit?”
“"CEO Jay Snowden says the company has no plans to enter prediction markets. He wants the Supreme Court to weigh in on the “controversial” industry as soon as possible." Penn Entertainment Is Staying Away From Prediction Markets”
“@unusual_whales The probability that Trump nationalizes elections is on the rise.”
“@StonkyOli @Foster What is GOING ON in the WHITE HOUSE”
“@Foster @SolJakey did you see this???”
“Oh boy”
“@unusual_whales 25% chance Ghislaine Maxwell testifies to Congress about Epstein.”
“Pray for me”
“BREAKING: US-Iran nuclear talks to resume next week 54% chance of a deal this year”
“@Foster I am COOKED”
“@PredMTrader its happening”
“Feels like a good skit @dhtoomey”
“BREAKING: JD Vance just mentioned "Aliens" FOUR TIMES in a speech at a factory in Wisconsin.. Things are heating up”
“@PatWodes even bigger there”
“Imagine waking up from a coma and seeing the headline like "Insider banned and fined for betting on Mr. Beast YouTube videos on Kalshi" I would be asked to be put back to sleep.”
“@BRICSinfo No deal is likely to be made before April.”
“Beast Industries CEO: Prediction markets are 'ripe for abuse' amid insider trading allegations”
“@PopCrave 80% chance Apple releases a foldable iPhone this year.”
“"...legislation that would prohibit unregulated prediction markets in New Jersey and require that any markets involving athletic events operate under the State’s existing sports betting laws."”
“It’s just a lot of process. Getting it ready. Maintenance. Storage or taking to and from a marina. If you take it out it’s an all day event. You can’t just do a couple hours cause the process is so long. Wear Nd tear happens…”
“Pour one out for the insider who hammered their own company on the ZachXbt investigation, only to find out he wasn’t investigating you yet.”
“NEW: The Ninth Circuit has consolidated the Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto PM appeals for purposes of oral argument, which will be held on April 16th. Oral argument will be 75 minutes divided as follows: 45 mins shared by KEX, RH and Crypto; 30 minutes shared…”
“@HQNewsNow”
“@maj_kong @FormerCFTCGC @ok_post_guy FYI, here is what Claude gave me:”
“BREAKING: Hillary Clinton testifies under oath that she doesn't recall ever meeting Jeffrey Epstein.”
“JUST IN: Apple’s iPhone and iPad approved to handle "classified" NATO information”
“@GaetenD guerilla marketing goes hard”
“@depressivehacks I am gonna need to do some drugs to wind down from all of it”
“@wolfejosh Nobody will remember any of that by this weekend, much less in November.”
“https://t.co/575aBEWIIk”
“Things are going great in the sweepstakes industry, thanks for asking”
“@kingbrody they're calling me the Godzilla of prediction markets”
“BREAKING: Rothschild Group CEO, Ariane de Rothschild, under investigation for Epstein connection.”
“The Bolsheviks in 1920:”
“@remarks 14% chance Trump nationalizes elections.”
“@wollok2021 Have a delightful day my friend”
“RT @polymarketinfo: The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs last Friday, 6-3. But Polymarket traders called it 3 months ago, in real time, during oral arguments. The moment Justice Gorsuch started his questioning, odds collapsed from 46% to 24%. They never recovered. Here's the play-by-play…”
“JUST IN: Trump to reportedly meet with Mamdani on Thursday 96% chance it happens”
“My analysis of the issue: 2/2”
“Is this something”
“My analysis of the issue: 1/2”
“This dude is everywhere.”
“@DustinGouker The French word for sloth is le paresseux”
“JD VANCE WISCONSIN”
“RT @Worldsource24: NYT: Israeli hospitals are preparing to move patients to underground shelters where they can continue treatment in the event of war. Israel’s health ministry has instructed medical centers to be ready for two to four weeks of conflict if necessary.”
“@dan_bernstein_ I'd argue they all see this on the horizon, but are waiting for the suits to accept that markets know more (or something different) than their models or experts.”
“JUST IN: 30-year mortgage rate falls below 6% for first time since 2022”
“"The first lady’s speech will mark the first time a first lady from any country — and the first time a sitting U.S. first lady — will preside over the security council as its members consider education, technology, peace and security."”
“RT @LiveSquawk: Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency”
“RT @FaytuksNetwork: BREAKING: Trump has previewed a "17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting" - Washington Post”
“I mean it’s funny but also encouraging that CNBC looks at prediction markets with a very critical eye.”
“I am recording a video with a French newspaper tomorrow. Many people are saying I am huge in France.”
“@trylimitless and a 401k instead of a pnl chart”
“The Trump Tariffs decision by SCOTUS has already sparked a disagreement between New Jersey and Kalshi as to its applicability to prediction markets. Competing CA3 filings highlight the divide as to whether the majority's application of the major questions doctrine extends to PMs.”
“7.7m PnL at the top! Leaderboard’s getting serious. Big size, big conviction, big weeks. NHL’s back. Time to move folks. 🫡”
“RT @TheInsiderPaper: BREAKING: US Navy’s 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain reduced to “mission critical” staffing — fewer than 100 personnel remaining — ahead of potential strikes on Iran, U.S. officials tell Fox News.”
“Shoutout John.”
“JUST IN: Morgan Stanley warns AI spending to "surpass" dot-com bubble”
“They say the 2 best days of a boat owner are the day you buy it and the day you sell it. Now that the boats sold. I completely agree and understand this statement”
“JUST IN: Job postings for software engineers on Indeed reach 6-month high”
“RT @TheIntelFrog: The Ford left NSA Souda Bay this morning, likely to join up with its escorts USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116) and USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81). Once reassembled, the group will likely proceed towards Israel where it may stay.”
“RT @DeItaone: THUNE: IF US TAKES ACTION ON IRAN, GOAL SHOULD BE REGIME CHANGE”
“RT @niubi: “Gerald Brown, a former F-35 Lightning II instructor pilot with decades of experience flying U.S. military aircraft, allegedly betrayed his country by training Chinese pilots to fight against those he swore to protect,” said Assistant Director Roman Rozhavsky of the FBI’s Counterintelligence and…”
“BREAKING: The Justice Department said it's reviewing whether it improperly withheld some Epstein files. 14% chance the client list is released.”
“We made it!”
“RT @Kalshi: NEW KALSHI: 12% chance the Citrini scenario happens”
“NEW KALSHI: 12% chance the Citrini scenario happens”
“RT @astraffon: "...enabling DriveWealth’s partners to offer event-driven markets alongside equities, ETFs, and other traditional asset classes" DriveWealth and Kalshi Announce Plans to Expand Global Access to Regulated Prediction Markets”
“https://t.co/owpBPtsv28”
“Wrote about the insider trading bans at Kalshi:”
“RT @PolymarketMoney: $AAPL CEO Tim Cook teases a product announcement posting “A big week ahead. It all starts Monday morning.” Apple appears set to unveil a new product early next week.”
“RT @GivnerAriel: If you give someone an affiliate badge and let them speak like they’re part of your team, don’t act shocked when regulators treat them that way. This is going to become a litigation hot topic. As ad disclosures and influencer rules tighten, “just…”
“"In our Interactive segment, we successfully rebranded our U.S. online sportsbook to theScore Bet® and achieved positive adjusted EBITDA in December driven by iCasino momentum" PENN Entertainment, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter Results -”
“20% chance they’re banned.”
“RT @DustinGouker: Understated in all this about the California candidate betting on himself at Kalshi is the investigation took nine months… when he literally recorded himself doing it and put it on Twitter. What was being investigated, exactly? Didn’t exactly take a lot of detective…”
“RT @soshnick: Supreme Court Could Decide Future of Sports Prediction Markets via @sportico @McCannSportsLaw”
“RT @AlanMCole: I'll do a little FAQ for if you clicked over to my profile from the WSJ article, which got more popular than I expected. Q: Was this a terrible risk? A: I promise it was fine and I was never worried about it.…”
“RT @AlanMCole: I'll do a little FAQ for if you clicked over to my profile from the WSJ article, which got more popular than I expected. Q: Was this a terrible risk? A: I promise it was fine and I was never worried about it.…”
“RT @roundrobin42: What’s the optimal number of insider trading cases to highlight? 0 makes the coverup obvious. But too many shows the platform is rife with it. If I was Kalshi I’d aim for 2-3 every few months, for medium amounts in silly markets, to…”
“RT @SteveRuddock: I was a bit surprised when I looked into Michigan's online lottery numbers post-iCasino (after seeing tweets from @freelancehack and @jesswelman), so I went a little deeper for the newsletter. PA numbers in next tweet”
“BREAKING: The Pentagon has made a "final offer" to Anthropic seeking unrestricted military use of its AI capabilities — they have 24 hours to respond or risk being banned.”
“JUST IN: Ebay to cut 800 jobs”
“Kevin Warsh nomination odds down to 93% Tied for the lowest level since he was announced”
“RT @JenniferJJacobs: Scoop: Pentagon officials on Wednesday night sent Anthropic what was described as their best and final offer in negotiations for use of the company's artificial intelligence technology, just ahead of a government-imposed deadline, sources told @CBSNews. It was unclear whether the offer substantially…”
“RT @FaytuksNetwork: Senior Iranian official tells Al Jazeera: Uranium enrichment is a sovereign right, and Tehran is proposing a temporary freeze for a limited period, but rejects zero enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, transferring uranium stockpiles, or any discussion of its missile and defense programs. He…”
“RT @kateferguson4: EXCL: Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying he is not confident The Greens will win in today's byelection, source tells me.”
“If you do enough insider trading you can then insider trade on the market about your insider trading.”
“40 MILLION dollars traded on the ZachXBT markets...”
“RT @Worldsource24: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei: "The topic of the negotiations is only about the nuclear issue, and the issue of the nuclear issue is clear. Any agreement must include lifting sanctions."”
“"...enabling DriveWealth’s partners to offer event-driven markets alongside equities, ETFs, and other traditional asset classes" DriveWealth and Kalshi Announce Plans to Expand Global Access to Regulated Prediction Markets”
“RT @Sizhe_bitcat: 铁子们这菜怎么吃啊”
“RT @business: The UK said it won’t implement a treaty handing the Chagos Islands to Mauritius without the support of the US, likely extending its delay due to Donald Trump’s new-found opposition to the deal”
“Axiom NO shares were in fact not “free” They were very expensive and are now worthless!”
“One day at a time.”
“RT @FaytuksNetwork: Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson says talks with the U.S. will resume between 17:30–18:00 Geneva time.”
