PredictIt

PredictIt is a politically focused prediction market run by Victoria University in New Zealand under a no-action letter from the CFTC that allowed it to operate for academic research purposes. The platform launched in 2014 and became the dominant US-accessible prediction market for political events through 2022, allowing American residents to legally trade on election outcomes, legislative votes, and political futures.

The CFTC attempted to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter in 2022, citing alleged violations of the operating conditions (including the number of markets and participants exceeding the academic research scope). The ensuing legal battle highlighted the regulatory ambiguity surrounding US prediction markets. While PredictIt secured a temporary stay and continued operating, the episode accelerated demand for legitimate regulated alternatives, benefiting Kalshi.

PredictIt's structural limitations are significant: a maximum of $850 invested per contract per market, a 10% fee on profits, and a 5% fee on withdrawals. These constraints make it less suitable for large-scale trading strategies but democratize access for retail participants who want small-stake political speculation. The platform remains primarily popular for political markets, including legislative outcomes and approval ratings alongside elections.