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ForecastEx

Definition

A CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange focused on economic and financial event contracts.

Understanding ForecastEx

ForecastEx (formerly known as American Forecast Exchange) is a CFTC-registered prediction market that received Designated Contract Market (DCM) approval to offer event contracts on economic and financial data releases. The platform focuses on macroeconomic questions like CPI, GDP, payrolls, and Federal Reserve decisions — data-driven markets where financial professionals have clear hedging and speculative use cases.

ForecastEx represents the second wave of CFTC-regulated prediction markets following Kalshi's pioneering approval. Its focus on financial data markets positions it to attract institutional and professional traders who want to hedge economic exposures in a regulated, non-traditional venue. For example, a business with significant exposure to inflation could hedge by purchasing contracts on CPI outcomes.

The platform launched with relatively modest liquidity compared to Kalshi or Polymarket but represents an important step in the legitimization of event-contract markets within the US regulatory framework. Its focus on quantifiable economic outcomes rather than political or entertainment events may make it more palatable to financial regulators concerned about the social effects of widespread political gambling.

Related Terms

CFTC

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US federal agency that regulates derivatives markets including certain prediction markets.

Kalshi

The first CFTC-regulated US prediction market exchange, offering legally compliant event contracts to American traders.

Prediction Market

A market where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events.

Event Contract

A financial instrument that pays a fixed amount if a specified real-world event occurs and zero if it does not.

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