Military Bases Fall as Death Toll Climbs
Nigeria lost at least 65 soldiers in just two weeks of March 2026, marking one of the deadliest periods for its military since the insurgency began over a decade ago. On March 5-6, Islamic State West Africa Province (Iswap) gunmen overran four military bases in Borno state — the epicenter of the insurgency — killing approximately 40 soldiers and reportedly abducting 300 civilians, according to Nigerian newspaper the Punch. These coordinated base attacks represent a significant escalation in jihadist capabilities, targeting fortified military positions rather than soft civilian targets.
Hospital Bombed During Ramadan Fast-Breaking
Eleven days later, the violence pivoted to Maiduguri, a city that had rebuilt its reputation as a "relative oasis of calm" after years of pushing insurgents into rural areas. On March 17, suspected Boko Haram suicide bombers struck the University of Maiduguri teaching hospital entrance, a post office, and two market areas during iftar — the evening meal breaking the Ramadan fast. At least 23 civilians died and over 100 were injured. The timing and target selection — hitting a medical facility during a religious observance — suggests a deliberate strategy to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties.
Terror Deaths Jump 46% Despite Global Decline
The March attacks cap a year of dramatic deterioration. Nigeria recorded 750 terrorism-related deaths in 2025, a 46% surge from 513 in 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index released March 19. This represents the largest single-country increase in terrorism deaths globally, even as worldwide terror fatalities dropped to their lowest level in a decade. Nigeria now ranks fourth on the global terrorism index, behind only Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger — a sharp reversal after years of military gains that had pushed jihadist groups to the margins.
What's Driving the Resurgence
The dual threat from Iswap (an Islamic State affiliate) and Boko Haram — groups that split in 2016 but both remain active — has proven resilient despite sustained military pressure and U.S. counterterrorism support. The March attacks demonstrate evolved tactics: coordinated assaults on hardened military targets combined with urban suicide bombings timed for maximum civilian casualties. The abduction of 300 civilians from areas surrounding overrun bases suggests jihadists are rebuilding their recruitment and revenue streams through hostage-taking, a funding mechanism that plagued the region throughout the 2010s.
The spike in violence undermines Nigeria's narrative of containing the insurgency to remote areas. When Maiduguri — Borno state's capital and a city of over 1 million — becomes a suicide bombing target during Ramadan, the geographic containment strategy has clearly failed. Traders watching African stability markets or Nigerian political risk should note: the military is losing ground both literally (four bases in two days) and strategically (urban areas no longer secure). The 46% year-over-year increase in deaths signals a trend, not a blip.