The nightmare scenario is now reality
Republican operatives spent Tuesday night watching their worst-case scenario unfold in real time. State Rep. James Talarico, a seminary student and "progressive Christian" who GOP strategists privately regard as their toughest possible opponent, secured the Democratic Senate nomination with 53.1% of the vote. Meanwhile, Sen. John Cornyn — the establishment's preferred candidate — barely survived to a May 26 runoff against scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, who national Republicans view as electoral poison.
"A Paxton vs. Talarico match in November would be unnecessarily competitive and costly," one GOP operative told Axios, amid fears that what was once a lock for Republicans could flip in a year when they're defending razor-thin majorities in both chambers. National GOP groups have already spent tens of millions trying to stop Paxton, who faces allegations he abused his office and engaged in infidelity. Now President Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn "soon" in an attempt to head off disaster, though neither candidate has agreed to drop out if they miss out on the president's backing.
Talarico built an unexpected coalition
Talarico's victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett shocked observers who watched polls swing wildly in the final weeks. The progressive Christian's pitch resonated beyond the Democratic base — in multiple Latino-majority counties, more people cast Democratic votes Tuesday than voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Crockett, a liberal firebrand who drew national attention for sharp Trump administration criticism, initially refused to concede Tuesday night, citing voter confusion in Dallas County. "We don't have any of the results because there was a lot of confusion today," Crockett told supporters. "People have been disenfranchised." The Texas Supreme Court had earlier halted extended voting hours in Dallas after Paxton appealed a lower court ruling meant to address poll location confusion.
The anti-incumbency bloodbath
Beyond the Senate race, Tuesday delivered a brutal reminder of how hostile voters are toward incumbents. Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost outright in Texas's 2nd district to state Rep. Steve Toth, who attacked him as insufficiently conservative. Four other House members — including Rep. Tony Gonzales, who faces a House Ethics probe over an alleged affair with a staffer who died by suicide — are heading to 12-week runoff slogs. As @GerlacherC noted ahead of results, "Lots to cover in Texas alone." A staggering 30 House Democrats nationwide are facing primary challengers who've raised $100,000 or more, with a dozen out-raised by their rivals.
What traders are watching now
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has spent much of the last year lobbying Trump to back Cornyn, and the expected endorsement could arrive within days. Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday that whoever misses his endorsement "should drop out of the race" — a remarkable ultimatum for an intra-party runoff. If Paxton defies Trump and stays in, the May 26 runoff could become a proxy war between MAGA loyalists and the GOP establishment. Meanwhile, Democrats are betting that Talarico's coalition of progressive Christians and Latino voters represents a new template for competing in red states. The question for markets: Can a seminary student really flip Texas, or did Republicans just dodge a bullet by keeping Cornyn alive?
