The split
Bitcoin mining earnings this week revealed a sector at war with itself. Riot Platforms reported record 2025 revenue of $647 million — driven by $576 million in Bitcoin mining revenue — while holding 18,005 BTC worth $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, Core Scientific sold $175 million in bitcoin and now holds under 1,000 BTC as it accelerates its AI pivot. The contrast couldn't be starker: one miner is accumulating during a bear market, the other is liquidating to fund a business model shift.
Core Scientific's Q4 earnings missed revenue expectations, sending shares lower as the company faces the twin pressures of lower Bitcoin prices and higher operational costs. The stock turned negative after disappointing results, while Riot topped revenue estimates for the final three months of 2025. Core Scientific said it plans to "remain opportunistic" moving forward — corporate-speak for selling more bitcoin when convenient.
Why miners are splitting
The divergence reflects a fundamental bet on bitcoin's medium-term trajectory. Riot is playing the long game, betting that Bitcoin's price will reward accumulation. Core Scientific is hedging by pivoting into AI infrastructure, chasing demand from hyperscalers and enterprise clients. Both strategies are rational responses to mining's brutal economics: the April 2024 halving cut block rewards in half, and hashrate has continued climbing, compressing margins for everyone.
For prediction market traders, miner balance sheet strategies offer a proxy for institutional sentiment on bitcoin's price path. When publicly traded miners sell, they're telegraphing skepticism about near-term recovery. When they hold or accumulate, they're signaling confidence. Riot's 18,005 BTC position makes it a leveraged bet on bitcoin recovery — if BTC rallies 20%, Riot's treasury gains $320 million in paper value. Core Scientific's sub-1,000 BTC position insulates it from downside but caps upside.
What to watch
Bitcoin fell below $67,000 on March 3 as U.S. equities slid and risk-off sentiment built ahead of Tuesday's open. Traders are watching the U.S. jobs report this week for signals on whether macro conditions will support a crypto rebound or extend the grind lower. Meanwhile, altcoins like NEAR (+17% after launching "Confidential Intents"), Polkadot, and Jupiter posted double-digit weekly gains as Bitcoin stabilized — though experts warn the move is a positioning rebound, not a trend shift. The question for miners: is this a bear market bounce or the start of recovery? Riot and Core Scientific have placed opposite bets.
